M. Giron vs I. Buse — Prediction & Analysis

US Open · ATP US Open - 1/64-finals · Aug. 30, 2026 · 15:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing I. Buse (moneyline) at 1.84 in M. Giron vs I. Buse (US Open on 2026-08-30). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds M. Giron 1.85 · I. Buse 1.95

Bot bet

I. Buse (moneyline) @ 1.84 · 0.75u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: M. Giron · I. Buse · head-to-head record · US Open

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method M. Giron I. Buse
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
39.1% 60.9%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
34.9% 65.1%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
28.4% 71.6%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
39.1% 60.9%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
51.3% 48.7%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
M. Giron hard1698 135–113248
I. Buse hard1755 33–2356

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 2, 2026.

Head to head

I. Buse leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Sept. 2, 2026US OpenhardI. Buse3 - 2
June 16, 2026LondongrassI. Buse2 - 1

Recent form

M. Giron

L I. Buse 2 - 3 Sept. 2, 2026
L D. Suresh 2 - 0 Aug. 24, 2026
L H. Rocha 0 - 2 Aug. 12, 2026
L H. Hurkacz 2 - 1 Aug. 4, 2026
W P. Llamas Ruiz 2 - 1 Aug. 1, 2026

I. Buse

L B. Bonzi 3 - 0 Sept. 3, 2026
W M. Giron 2 - 3 Sept. 2, 2026
W A. Fery 0 - 2 Aug. 29, 2026
W B. Bonzi 2 - 1 Aug. 28, 2026
W J. M. Cerundolo 1 - 2 Aug. 27, 2026

All Aug. 30, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →