TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Geerts vs E. Ymer (Hertogenbosch on 2026-06-06) — the market is efficient, with E. Ymer favoured at 1.38.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Geerts | E. Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.5% | 55.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.5% | 56.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.0% | 56.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.9% | 68.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
M. Geerts leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 25, 2024 | Naples 3 Challenger Men | clay | M. Geerts | 2 - 0 |
| L | V. Durasovic | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | Y. Zhou | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | P. De Lange | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | I. Vasa | 0 - 1 | May 7, 2026 |
| W | D. Dinev | 2 - 1 | May 5, 2026 |
All June 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used