TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Berrettini vs M. Arnaldi (French Open on 2026-06-03) — the market is efficient, with M. Berrettini favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Berrettini | M. Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.0% | 50.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.3% | 48.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.5% | 57.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.0% | 52.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.2% | 39.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Berrettini | hard | 1804 | 70–53 | 123 |
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
M. Arnaldi leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 3, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Arnaldi | 1 - 0 |
| L | M. Navone | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 3 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Wawrinka | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 1 | June 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All June 3, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used