TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Duckworth (moneyline) at 2.09 in M. Arnaldi vs J. Duckworth (US Open on 2026-08-30). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Arnaldi | J. Duckworth |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.2% | 47.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
42.3% | 57.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
16.3% | 83.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.2% | 47.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
49.9% | 50.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Arnaldi | hard | 1676 | 70–76 | 146 |
| J. Duckworth | hard | 1721 | 197–131 | 328 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 31, 2026.
J. Duckworth leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 31, 2026 | US Open | hard | J. Duckworth | 3 - 1 |
| L | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | M. Landaluce | 2 - 1 | Aug. 15, 2026 |
| L | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | Aug. 7, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 1 - 2 | Aug. 5, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | Y. Wu | 0 - 3 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | M. Arnaldi | 1 - 3 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 1 - 2 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 0 - 1 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
| W | L. Sonego | 0 - 2 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
All Aug. 30, 2026 results & picks →