TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Duckworth (moneyline) at 2.09 in M. Arnaldi vs J. Duckworth (US Open on 2026-08-30). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Arnaldi | J. Duckworth |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.2% | 47.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
42.3% | 57.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
16.3% | 83.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.2% | 47.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
49.9% | 50.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Arnaldi | hard | 1673 | 72–80 | 152 |
| J. Duckworth | hard | 1674 | 199–138 | 337 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 2, 2026.
J. Duckworth leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 31, 2026 | US Open | hard | J. Duckworth | 3 - 1 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 1 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 2 | Oct. 19, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 0 - 2 | Oct. 10, 2026 |
| W | B. Tomic | 0 - 2 | Oct. 8, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 0 - 2 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | M. Kecmanovic | 1 - 2 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| L | A. Kovacevic | 2 - 0 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
All Aug. 30, 2026 results & picks →