TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Tagger vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (Parma on 2026-05-13) — the market is efficient, with L. Tagger favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Tagger | J. Bouzas Maneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.3% | 43.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
66.7% | 33.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
72.7% | 27.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.2% | 34.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.9% | 41.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Tagger | clay | 1775 | 51–20 | 71 |
| J. Bouzas Maneiro | clay | 1679 | 122–67 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 26, 2026.
J. Bouzas Maneiro leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Parma | clay | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 |
| W | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Hontama | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | X. Gao | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | A. Arseneault | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Yastremska | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 13, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used