TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Pavlovic vs T. Barrios Vera (French Open on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with T. Barrios Vera favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Pavlovic | T. Barrios Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
34.7% | 65.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
26.6% | 73.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
40.7% | 59.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
34.0% | 66.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.0% | 71.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Pavlovic | clay | 1555 | 129–77 | 206 |
| T. Barrios Vera | clay | 1624 | 161–103 | 264 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | French Open | clay | L. Pavlovic | 2 - 1 |
| May 20, 2025 | French Open | clay | T. Barrios Vera | 2 - 0 |
| L | V. Gaubas | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | M. Martineau | 1 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | K. Smith | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | M. Alkaya | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | Y. Zhou | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | A. Vukic | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Dietrich | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | N. Visker | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | I. Simakin | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | D. Sweeny | 3 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used