TennisEdge's AI bot is backing R. Matsuda (moneyline) at 2.40 in K. Kawa vs R. Matsuda (Beijing on 2026-09-28). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Kawa | R. Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.8% | 39.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.2% | 50.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.4% | 48.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
53.8% | 46.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.1% | 39.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kawa | hard | 1545 | 61–75 | 136 |
| R. Matsuda | hard | 1477 | 68–62 | 130 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 3, 2026.
K. Kawa leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 28, 2026 | Beijing | hard | K. Kawa | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Rajeshwaran Revathi | 2 - 1 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 2 - 1 | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| W | B. Bencic | 2 - 0 | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Snigur | 2 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| W | D. Snigur | 0 - 1 | Oct. 18, 2026 |
| L | K. Okamura | 2 - 0 | Nov. 13, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ma | 2 - 0 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | Y. Naito | 2 - 1 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| L | M. Kobori | 0 - 2 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| L | M. Stoiana | 2 - 0 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
All Sept. 28, 2026 results & picks →