TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Riera vs R. Montgomery (French Open on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with J. Riera favoured at 1.81.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Riera | R. Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.9% | 43.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
73.8% | 26.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.9% | 37.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.5% | 35.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.0% | 47.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Riera | clay | 1648 | 164–91 | 255 |
| R. Montgomery | hard | 1608 | 70–47 | 117 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 26, 2026.
J. Riera leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Riera | 2 - 1 |
| W | L. Perez Alarcon | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Pigossi | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | N. V. Leme Da Silva | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Bohrer Martins | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | G. Schincariol Delatorre Barbosa | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | J. Paolini | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Bassols | 1 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | E. Kalieva | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Dolehide | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | Walk Over | June 14, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used