TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Pegula vs M. Keys (Berlin on 2026-06-19) — the market is efficient, with J. Pegula favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | M. Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.9% | 47.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
68.8% | 31.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.4% | 51.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.1% | 45.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 19, 2026 | Berlin | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 26, 2026 | WTA Australian Open | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 11, 2025 | Adelaide | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 4, 2023 | WTA US Open | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 14, 2022 | San Diego | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
All June 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used