TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Sabalenka vs N. Bartunkova (Berlin on 2026-06-19) — the market is efficient, with A. Sabalenka favoured at 1.13.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | N. Bartunkova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.4% | 33.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
77.4% | 22.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
59.1% | 40.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.0% | 23.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
84.0% | 16.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2224 | 196–58 | 254 |
| N. Bartunkova | clay | 1676 | 72–40 | 112 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.
A. Sabalenka leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 19, 2026 | Berlin | grass | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Kostovic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| W | B. Andreescu | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Tararudee | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | Y. Yuan | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | K. Siniakova | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used