TennisEdge's AI bot is backing L. Fernandez +5.5 (game handicap) at 1.83 in J. Pegula vs L. Fernandez (US Open on 2026-09-03). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | L. Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
83.3% | 16.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.0% | 29.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
72.6% | 27.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
83.3% | 16.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
81.2% | 18.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pegula | hard | 2093 | 204–77 | 281 |
| L. Fernandez | hard | 1823 | 124–86 | 210 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 10, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 4, 2026 | US Open | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| March 22, 2026 | Miami | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| July 24, 2025 | Washington | hard | L. Fernandez | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 17, 2024 | WTA Cincinnati | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| March 24, 2024 | WTA Miami | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| W | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 2 - 1 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 0 - 2 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Zhang | 0 - 2 | Aug. 30, 2026 |
| L | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 16, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | Aug. 9, 2026 |
All Sept. 3, 2026 results & picks →