TennisEdge's AI bot is backing L. Fernandez +5.5 (game handicap) at 1.83 in J. Pegula vs L. Fernandez (US Open on 2026-09-03). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | L. Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
83.3% | 16.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.0% | 29.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
72.6% | 27.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
83.3% | 16.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
81.2% | 18.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pegula | hard | 2074 | 206–79 | 285 |
| L. Fernandez | hard | 1934 | 139–90 | 229 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 4, 2026 | US Open | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| March 22, 2026 | Miami | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| July 24, 2025 | Washington | hard | L. Fernandez | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 17, 2024 | WTA Cincinnati | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| March 24, 2024 | WTA Miami | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| W | L. Noskova | 2 - 1 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| L | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 1 - 2 | Nov. 1, 2026 |
| W | K. Rakhimova | 2 - 0 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Rybakina | Walk Over | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | H. Sakatsume | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
All Sept. 3, 2026 results & picks →