J. M. Cerundolo vs M. Trungelliti — Prediction & Analysis

Kitzbuhel · ATP Kitzbuhel - 1/16-finals · July 20, 2026 · 11:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Trungelliti +3.5 (game handicap) at 1.93 in J. M. Cerundolo vs M. Trungelliti (Kitzbuhel on 2026-07-20). Result: WON.

Surface clay Odds J. M. Cerundolo 1.50 · M. Trungelliti 2.62

Bot bet

M. Trungelliti +3.5 (game handicap) @ 1.93 · 1.5u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: J. M. Cerundolo · M. Trungelliti · head-to-head record · Kitzbuhel

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method J. M. Cerundolo M. Trungelliti
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
66.9% 33.1%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
71.7% 28.3%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
46.6% 53.4%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
62.1% 37.9%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
63.6% 36.4%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
J. M. Cerundolo clay1841 205–111316
M. Trungelliti clay1724 161–88249

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.

Head to head

M. Trungelliti leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 21, 2026KitzbuhelclayM. Trungelliti2 - 0

Recent form

J. M. Cerundolo

L A. Gea 2 - 3 Sept. 1, 2026
L I. Buse 1 - 2 Aug. 27, 2026
W S. Baez 1 - 0 Aug. 26, 2026
W D. Suresh 2 - 0 Aug. 25, 2026
L F. Auger-Aliassime 0 - 2 Aug. 18, 2026

M. Trungelliti

W S. Cuenin 0 - 2 Sept. 15, 2026
L T. Pereira 2 - 1 Sept. 8, 2026
L A. Blockx 3 - 1 Sept. 3, 2026
W J. Shang 2 - 3 Aug. 31, 2026
L D. Medvedev 0 - 2 Aug. 16, 2026

All July 20, 2026 results & picks →

32 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →