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V. Kopriva vs I. Buse — Prediction & Analysis

Kitzbuhel · ATP Kitzbuhel - 1/16-finals · July 20, 2026 · 11:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in V. Kopriva vs I. Buse (Kitzbuhel on 2026-07-20) — the market is efficient, with I. Buse favoured at 1.44.

Surface clay Odds V. Kopriva 2.75 · I. Buse 1.44

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: V. Kopriva · I. Buse · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ V. Kopriva vs I. Buse — Kitzbuhel (clay), 1/16-finals ═══

MODELS & MARKET
  Book:    Kopriva 2.75 (35.6%*) | Buse 1.44 (69.4%*)   *raw implied
  Betfair: Kopriva 2.66 | Buse 1.59
  ELO:     Kopriva 40.3%  | ML model: Kopriva 32.3%  | Blend: 40.3%
  Value flag: A (+6.0% vs book) — driven by ELO only; ML AGREES with market
  Alt markets: A +2.5 @2.02 (model covers 56.2%) | Total 22.5 O2.0/U1.94 (model over 50.4%)

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all fetched matches used)
  Kopriva (2-3 last 5):
    07-13 Umag L Prizmic (Elite 1868) 1-6 3-6 — blowout loss
    06-30 Wimb L Choinski (Avg 1553) in straights — bad loss
    06-25 Mallorca QF L Quinn (Avg 1593)
    06-24 Mallorca W Buse (Avg 1593) 7-5 6-1 — H2H, on GRASS
    06-23 Mallorca W Dzumhur (Weak 1469) DOM
  Buse (2-3 last 5, tougher slate):
    07-14 Gstaad L Tsitsipas (Strong 1795) 6-4 6-4 — competitive
    07-01 Wimb L Brooksby (Strong 1683) straights (grass)
    06-29 Wimb W Nava (Weak 1506) 4 sets GRIND
    06-24 Mallorca L Kopriva (grass)
    06-23 Mallorca W Tsitsipas GRIND vs Strong
  Deeper: Buse won Hamburg clay title 05-23 incl. Final over T. Paul (Elite 1980) — real clay pedigree.

FATIGUE — Roughly equal
  Kopriva: 1 match/14d, 3 sets, ~86min, last 07-13
  Buse:    1 match/14d, 3 sets, ~108min, last 07-14
  Court-time diff 22min, matches diff 0 → no edge either way.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: none (Buse's last Final won 58d ago — outside window)
  Venue: neither player has Kitzbuhel history in sample (0-0 / 0-0)
  Title recency: TITLE Buse — Hamburg 58d ago (clay). Kopriva none.
  H2H: Kopriva won 06-24 — but on grass, Buse's worst surface; does not transfer to clay.

VERDICT — PASS (all markets)
  ML: only ELO disagrees with market; ML model sides with Buse at 67.8%. The qualitative
  read KILLS the Kopriva value thesis: he is dropping straight-setters to average
  opposition while Buse is a recent clay titlist (beat Paul 1980) losing only tight to
  strong players. Mixed model signal + qualitative pointing the other way = no bet.
  Handicap A+2.5 @2.02: sim edge ~+6.7pts, but it inherits the same ELO tilt with no
  independent margin read — clay widens margins and Kopriva's recent losses were
  lopsided (1-6 3-6). Thin alt edge = PASS.
  Total 22.5: model 50.4% over vs 50.0% implied — no edge.
  Forecast: Buse in 2, ~64%.

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