TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Faria vs D. Shapovalov (French Open on 2026-05-25) — the market is efficient, with J. Faria favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Faria | D. Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.0% | 26.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
64.3% | 35.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.0% | 47.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.8% | 36.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.0% | 43.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Faria | clay | 1796 | 92–74 | 166 |
| D. Shapovalov | hard | 1830 | 102–78 | 180 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
J. Faria leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Faria | 3 - 0 |
| L | C. O'Connell | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | G. Bueno | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | B. Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | R. Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | R. Hijikata | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
All May 25, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used