TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Faria vs C. Smith (French Open on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with J. Faria favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Faria | C. Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
79.5% | 20.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
83.3% | 16.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.2% | 31.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.0% | 23.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.9% | 28.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
J. Faria leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Faria | 2 - 1 |
| L | C. O'Connell | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | G. Bueno | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | B. Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | . R. Pascual F. | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | J. Wolf | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | Y. Bu | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | H. Matsuoka | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Ilagan | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used