TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Duckworth +1.5 (game handicap) at 1.95 in J. Duckworth vs L. Sonego (Chengdu on 2026-09-23). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Duckworth | L. Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.3% | 47.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.3% | 50.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
74.6% | 25.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.7% | 41.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
45.1% | 54.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Duckworth | hard | 1674 | 199–138 | 337 |
| L. Sonego | hard | 1744 | 91–99 | 190 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 9, 2026.
L. Sonego leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 24, 2026 | Chengdu | hard | L. Sonego | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 26, 2026 | Winston-Salem | hard | J. Duckworth | 2 - 0 |
| June 21, 2022 | Eastbourne | grass | L. Sonego | 2 - 1 |
| July 3, 2021 | Wimbledon | grass | L. Sonego | 3 - 0 |
| L | C. Norrie | 0 - 2 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | M. Kecmanovic | 1 - 2 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| L | A. Kovacevic | 2 - 0 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Tabilo | 1 - 2 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| W | Q. Halys | 2 - 0 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| W | I. Montes-De La Torre | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| W | O. Wallin | 0 - 2 | Nov. 7, 2026 |
| L | M. Bellucci | 2 - 0 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
All Sept. 23, 2026 results & picks →