TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Choinski vs P. Herbert (French Open on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with J. Choinski favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Choinski | P. Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.5% | 25.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
80.5% | 19.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
84.7% | 15.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
79.9% | 20.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
66.3% | 33.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Choinski | clay | 1806 | 151–83 | 234 |
| P. Herbert | hard | 1650 | 85–71 | 156 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
J. Choinski leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 12, 2023 | Braunschweig Challenger Men | clay | J. Choinski | 2 - 1 |
| W | J. Mackenzie | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | O. Wallin | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Barrena | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | F. Passaro | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | S. Kopp | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | T. Monteiro | 2 - 1 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | P. Jubb | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Landaluce | 1 - 2 | June 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Alkaya | 0 - 2 | June 7, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used