TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Guo vs M. Kessler (French Open on 2026-05-25) — the market is efficient, with M. Kessler favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Guo | M. Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.0% | 50.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.9% | 56.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.7% | 48.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.5% | 51.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.8% | 70.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Guo | hard | 1641 | 80–48 | 128 |
| M. Kessler | hard | 1792 | 101–54 | 155 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
M. Kessler leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Kessler | 2 - 1 |
| L | K. Day | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | Xiy. Wang | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | E. Jacquemot | 1 - 2 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | M. Inglis | 1 - 2 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | M. Kessler | 1 - 2 | May 25, 2026 |
| W | C. Brace | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 25, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used