TennisEdge's AI bot is backing H. Dart (moneyline) at 3.44 in H. Dart vs P. Stearns (US Open on 2026-08-30). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Dart | P. Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.5% | 60.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
36.5% | 63.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.2% | 46.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
35.7% | 64.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
18.2% | 81.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Dart | hard | 1712 | 139–96 | 235 |
| P. Stearns | hard | 1736 | 99–76 | 175 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 3, 2026.
H. Dart leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 31, 2026 | US Open | hard | H. Dart | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 14, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 25, 2021 | US Open | hard | H. Dart | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | P. Stearns | 2 - 1 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| W | H. Watson | 1 - 2 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
| W | K. Penickova | 1 - 2 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| W | J. Hazelitt | 1 - 2 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
All Aug. 30, 2026 results & picks →