TennisEdge's AI bot is backing H. Dart (moneyline) at 3.44 in H. Dart vs P. Stearns (US Open on 2026-08-30). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Dart | P. Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.5% | 60.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
36.5% | 63.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.2% | 46.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
35.7% | 64.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
18.2% | 81.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Dart | hard | 1802 | 151–98 | 249 |
| P. Stearns | hard | 1723 | 102–80 | 182 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 1, 2026.
H. Dart leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 31, 2026 | US Open | hard | H. Dart | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 14, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 25, 2021 | US Open | hard | H. Dart | 2 - 1 |
| W | L. Tagger | 1 - 2 | Nov. 1, 2026 |
| W | X. Sun | 1 - 2 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| W | P. Badosa | 1 - 2 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | J. Tjen | 2 - 1 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 2 - 1 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| L | K. Siniakova | 1 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | H. Shi | 1 - 2 | Oct. 10, 2026 |
| L | V. Golubic | 2 - 1 | Oct. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 0 - 2 | Sept. 19, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 0 - 2 | Sept. 19, 2026 |
All Aug. 30, 2026 results & picks →