TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Tiafoe vs F. Auger-Aliassime (Halle on 2026-06-19) — the market is efficient, with F. Auger-Aliassime favoured at 1.60.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Tiafoe | F. Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.7% | 56.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
28.3% | 71.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.1% | 58.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.7% | 62.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.6% | 58.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1866 | 126–85 | 211 |
| F. Auger-Aliassime | hard | 1996 | 169–85 | 254 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
F. Auger-Aliassime leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 19, 2026 | Halle | grass | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 4, 2022 | Paris | hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 0 |
| April 22, 2022 | Barcelona | clay | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 6, 2021 | US Open | hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 1 |
| L | T. Atmane | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Choinski | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 2 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Prizmic | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
All June 19, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus identifies a 4.3% mathematical edge on Auger-Aliassime, largely driven by the Machine Learning model which projects a 71.7% win probability. Qualitative analysis supports this stance: FAA owns a commanding 3-0 H2H record against Tiafoe and is described as 'near-impenetrable' on current form. While Tiafoe is playing well, the combination of historical matchup dominance and the ML model's confidence justifies a small stake on the favorite despite the short odds.