TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Altmaier vs D. Medvedev (Halle on 2026-06-19) — the market is efficient, with D. Medvedev favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Altmaier | D. Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
13.3% | 86.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
23.7% | 76.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
18.5% | 81.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
21.4% | 78.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Altmaier | clay | 1741 | 128–82 | 210 |
| D. Medvedev | hard | 1994 | 207–77 | 284 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 19, 2026 | Halle | grass | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 |
| June 16, 2025 | Halle | grass | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Vukic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Cilic | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
All June 19, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus assigns Medvedev an 80.3% win probability, yielding a marginal 1.8% edge over the devigged market odds of 78.6%. While Medvedev is structurally superior on grass compared to Altmaier's poor 1514 grass ELO, the mathematical value is negligible. Medvedev's heavy recent workload—5 matches and 15 sets over the last 7 days—adds a significant fatigue risk that the slim edge cannot absorb. Consequently, with a Kelly suggestion of 0.0 units and the inherent danger of heavy favorite betting where one loss erases five wins, passing is the only prudent action.