TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Davidovich Fokina (moneyline) in F. Marozsan vs A. Davidovich Fokina (Mallorca on 2026-06-26).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Marozsan | A. Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
31.6% | 68.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.4% | 52.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.5% | 53.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
41.8% | 58.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.8% | 63.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Marozsan | clay | 1759 | 115–59 | 174 |
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 22, 2026.
A. Davidovich Fokina leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 0 |
| June 26, 2026 | Mallorca | grass | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 27, 2024 | ATP Dubai | hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 26, 2026 results & picks →
The ML model identifies a 2.3% edge on Marozsan, largely driven by his elite grass-court hold percentage (82.1%) and 'Strong Specialist' surface profile. However, this edge is fragile and contradicted by the ELO model (which gives him only 31.6%) and the Market Trend signal, which warns that the market is 'chasing' his recent wins, potentially over-pricing him. Additionally, Marozsan carries a fatigue disadvantage having played 74 more minutes than Davidovich Fokina in the last two weeks. Given the conflicting signals and the thin margin, the value is insufficient to warrant a bet.