TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Maestrelli vs R. Carballes Baena (French Open on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with R. Carballes Baena favoured at 1.60.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Maestrelli | R. Carballes Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
37.1% | 62.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
38.3% | 61.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
50.2% | 49.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
41.9% | 58.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
40.3% | 59.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Maestrelli | clay | 1524 | 104–100 | 204 |
| R. Carballes Baena | clay | 1645 | 139–85 | 224 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
R. Carballes Baena leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | French Open | clay | R. Carballes Baena | 2 - 1 |
| L | J. P. Varillas | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | L. Neumayer | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Milic | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Basing | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | A. Galarneau | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | O. Wallin | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Houkes | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Huesler | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Sanchez Jover | 0 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used