TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Cobolli vs A. Pellegrino (French Open on 2026-05-25) — the market is efficient, with F. Cobolli favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Cobolli | A. Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.3% | 48.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
58.8% | 41.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.4% | 45.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.9% | 28.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cobolli | clay | 1896 | 132–82 | 214 |
| A. Pellegrino | clay | 1724 | 175–135 | 310 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 15, 2026.
F. Cobolli leads 4–0 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | F. Cobolli | 3 - 0 |
| July 17, 2023 | Trieste Challenger Men | clay | F. Cobolli | 2 - 0 |
| July 14, 2022 | Verona | clay | F. Cobolli | 2 - 1 |
| April 30, 2021 | Rome 2 | clay | F. Cobolli | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | K. Khachanov | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | T. Monteiro | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. A. Caniato | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Bueno | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. D. Silva | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
All May 25, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used