TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Nava vs C. Ugo Carabelli (French Open on 2026-05-25) — the market is efficient, with C. Ugo Carabelli favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Nava | C. Ugo Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.7% | 50.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.4% | 50.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.8% | 62.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.6% | 54.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Nava | hard | 1646 | 114–94 | 208 |
| C. Ugo Carabelli | clay | 1796 | 208–111 | 319 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
C. Ugo Carabelli leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | C. Ugo Carabelli | 3 - 0 |
| L | I. Buse | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | H. Stewart | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | T. Daniel | 2 - 0 | June 11, 2026 |
| W | P. Boscardin Dias | 1 - 2 | June 9, 2026 |
| W | H. Squire | 0 - 2 | June 6, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Droguet | 2 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | P. Carreno-Busta | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Topo | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 25, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used