E. Arango vs V. Williams — Prediction & Analysis

Cincinnati · · Aug. 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Arango (moneyline) at 1.37 in E. Arango vs V. Williams (Cincinnati on 2026-08-14). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds E. Arango 1.44 · V. Williams 2.75

Bot bet

E. Arango (moneyline) @ 1.37 · 1.0u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: E. Arango · V. Williams · head-to-head record · Cincinnati

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method E. Arango V. Williams
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
85.0% 14.9%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
85.8% 14.2%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
67.3% 32.7%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
75.1% 24.9%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
65.6% 34.4%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
E. Arango hard1573 66–67133
V. Williams hard1301 6–3238

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 13, 2026.

Head to head

E. Arango leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 14, 2026CincinnatihardE. Arango2 - 0

Recent form

E. Arango

L P. Stearns 2 - 0 Sept. 13, 2026
L C. Y. Lee 0 - 2 Sept. 9, 2026
W M. P. Perez Garcia 2 - 0 Sept. 8, 2026
L Xin. Wang 0 - 2 Aug. 30, 2026
L P. Udvardy 2 - 1 Aug. 22, 2026

V. Williams

L S. Kenin 0 - 2 Aug. 31, 2026
L E. Arango 2 - 0 Aug. 14, 2026
L K. Rakhimova 2 - 0 Aug. 2, 2026
L A. Potapova 2 - 0 July 29, 2026
L I. Begu 1 - 2 June 22, 2026

All Aug. 14, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →