TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Arango (moneyline) at 1.37 in E. Arango vs V. Williams (Cincinnati on 2026-08-14). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Arango | V. Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
85.0% | 14.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
85.8% | 14.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
67.3% | 32.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
75.1% | 24.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Arango | hard | 1573 | 66–67 | 133 |
| V. Williams | hard | 1301 | 6–32 | 38 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 13, 2026.
E. Arango leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 14, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | E. Arango | 2 - 0 |
| L | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 | Sept. 13, 2026 |
| L | C. Y. Lee | 0 - 2 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| W | M. P. Perez Garcia | 2 - 0 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 0 - 2 | Aug. 30, 2026 |
| L | P. Udvardy | 2 - 1 | Aug. 22, 2026 |
| L | S. Kenin | 0 - 2 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | E. Arango | 2 - 0 | Aug. 14, 2026 |
| L | K. Rakhimova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Potapova | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | I. Begu | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
All Aug. 14, 2026 results & picks →