E. Arango vs A. Aksu — Prediction & Analysis

Samsun · · Oct. 5, 2026 · 08:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Aksu +5.5 (game handicap) at 1.53 in E. Arango vs A. Aksu (Samsun on 2026-10-05). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds E. Arango 1.39 · A. Aksu 2.77

Bot bet

A. Aksu +5.5 (game handicap) @ 1.53 · 2.0u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: E. Arango · A. Aksu · head-to-head record · Samsun

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method E. Arango A. Aksu
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
57.1% 42.9%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
59.8% 40.2%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
57.5% 42.5%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
58.2% 41.8%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
66.6% 33.4%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
E. Arango hard1544 66–69135
A. Aksu hard1647 97–75172

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 12, 2026.

Head to head

A. Aksu leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Oct. 6, 2026SamsunhardA. Aksu2 - 0

Recent form

E. Arango

L E. Mandlik 2 - 0 Oct. 27, 2026
L G. Knutson 0 - 2 Oct. 12, 2026
L A. Aksu 0 - 2 Oct. 6, 2026
L A. Blinkova 0 - 2 Sept. 28, 2026
L P. Stearns 2 - 0 Sept. 13, 2026

A. Aksu

L N. Noha Akugue 0 - 2 Oct. 30, 2026
W L. Stefanini 1 - 2 Oct. 29, 2026
W L. Zaar 0 - 2 Oct. 26, 2026
L D. Hewitt 2 - 0 Oct. 21, 2026
W L. Stefanini 2 - 1 Oct. 11, 2026

All Oct. 5, 2026 results & picks →

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