TennisEdge's AI bot is backing H. Gaston (moneyline) at 7.40 in D. Medvedev vs H. Gaston (US Open on 2026-08-30). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Medvedev | H. Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
76.6% | 23.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.7% | 34.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.0% | 43.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.9% | 25.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
95.7% | 4.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Medvedev | hard | 2003 | 232–85 | 317 |
| H. Gaston | hard | 1669 | 123–98 | 221 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 4, 2026.
D. Medvedev leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 30, 2026 | US Open | hard | D. Medvedev | 3 - 0 |
| Nov. 5, 2021 | Paris | hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 |
| L | I. Buse | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Mannarino | 0 - 2 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 1 - 2 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Martineau | 2 - 1 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| L | V. Kopriva | 0 - 2 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| L | M. Kouame | 0 - 1 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | D. Glinka | 2 - 1 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
All Aug. 30, 2026 results & picks →