TennisEdge's AI bot is backing F. Auger-Aliassime -6.5 (game handicap) at 2.93 in C. Ugo Carabelli vs F. Auger-Aliassime (Shanghai on 2026-10-09). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Ugo Carabelli | F. Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
14.4% | 85.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
12.3% | 87.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
59.5% | 40.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.7% | 71.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
17.5% | 82.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ugo Carabelli | hard | 1580 | 22–40 | 62 |
| F. Auger-Aliassime | hard | 1947 | 174–90 | 264 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 10, 2026.
F. Auger-Aliassime leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 10, 2026 | Shanghai | hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 1 |
| May 25, 2022 | French Open | clay | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 0 |
| W | T. Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| W | G. Bueno | 0 - 2 | Nov. 7, 2026 |
| W | J. C. Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | I. Marcondes | 0 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | N. Sanchez Izquierdo | 1 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 0 - 0 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| W | P. Carreno-Busta | 1 - 2 | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | Oct. 10, 2026 |
| L | K. Khachanov | 2 - 0 | Sept. 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 | Sept. 19, 2026 |
All Oct. 9, 2026 results & picks →