TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Liu vs M. Uchijima (French Open on 2026-05-25) — the market is efficient, with C. Liu favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Liu | M. Uchijima |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
37.6% | 62.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
31.4% | 68.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
44.4% | 55.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.8% | 62.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Liu | hard | 1734 | 101–74 | 175 |
| M. Uchijima | hard | 1671 | 139–105 | 244 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 16, 2026.
C. Liu leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | C. Liu | 1 - 1 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | I. Oz | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | M. S. Popa | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | S. Kraus | 2 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | C. Bucsa | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | H. Sakatsume | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | M. Inglis | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Khan | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Kinoshita | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
All May 25, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used