TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Liu vs K. Kawa (French Open on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with C. Liu favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Liu | K. Kawa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.5% | 66.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
28.8% | 71.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
59.7% | 40.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.7% | 59.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.7% | 42.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 16, 2026.
C. Liu leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | French Open | clay | C. Liu | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 19, 2025 | US Open | hard | C. Liu | 2 - 0 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | I. Oz | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | M. S. Popa | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | S. Kraus | 2 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Fruhvirtova | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | P. Udvardy | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | S. Waltert | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | S. Waltert | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used