TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Vergara Rivera (moneyline) at 2.79 in C. Alves vs A. Vergara Rivera (Barranquilla on 2026-09-07). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Alves | A. Vergara Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.1% | 47.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
85.5% | 14.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.8% | 37.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
70.6% | 29.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Alves | hard | 1367 | 25–33 | 58 |
| A. Vergara Rivera | hard | 1219 | 5–7 | 12 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 16, 2026.
C. Alves leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 7, 2026 | Barranquilla | hard | C. Alves | 2 - 0 |
| June 14, 2026 | W35 Cuiaba | clay | C. Alves | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Samson | 2 - 1 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| W | S. A. Lozano Avellaneda | 2 - 0 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| L | L. Jeanjean | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | M. P. Perez Garcia | 2 - 0 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | J. Grabher | 0 - 2 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Gonzalez Daniele | 2 - 0 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| W | V. Bosio | 0 - 2 | Nov. 7, 2026 |
| W | J. Estevez | 2 - 0 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Doldan | 2 - 0 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Tarantola | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
All Sept. 7, 2026 results & picks →