TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Over 20.0 games at 2.43 in C. Alcaraz vs M. Arnaldi (Tokyo on 2026-10-03). Result: PUSH.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Alcaraz | M. Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
93.9% | 6.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
94.6% | 5.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
82.0% | 18.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
89.3% | 10.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Alcaraz | hard | 2210 | 183–46 | 229 |
| M. Arnaldi | hard | 1673 | 72–80 | 152 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 8, 2026.
C. Alcaraz leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 3, 2026 | Tokyo | hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 |
| March 9, 2024 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 4, 2023 | ATP US Open | hard | C. Alcaraz | 3 - 0 |
| W | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | Nov. 7, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | Walk Over | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 0 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 1 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 2 | Oct. 19, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 0 - 2 | Oct. 10, 2026 |
| W | B. Tomic | 0 - 2 | Oct. 8, 2026 |
All Oct. 3, 2026 results & picks →