AI match preview for B. Tomic vs A. Holmgren (Brisbane 3 on 2026-11-13): models, form and the market read. No bot verdict is published for this match yet. A. Holmgren is the market favourite at 1.60.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Tomic | A. Holmgren |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.2% | 47.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.0% | 44.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.9% | 62.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.7% | 51.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.7% | 57.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Tomic | hard | 1626 | 162–113 | 275 |
| A. Holmgren | hard | 1623 | 124–80 | 204 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 13, 2026.
A. Holmgren leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 13, 2026 | Brisbane 3 | hard | A. Holmgren | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Holmgren | 1 - 2 | Nov. 13, 2026 |
| W | O. Jasika | 2 - 0 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| W | B. Ellis | 2 - 1 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | D. Sweeny | 0 - 0 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| L | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 2 | Oct. 8, 2026 |
| W | B. Tomic | 1 - 2 | Nov. 13, 2026 |
| W | C. O'Connell | 2 - 0 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| W | P. Sekulic | 2 - 1 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | Y. Shimizu | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | D. Michalski | 0 - 2 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
All Nov. 13, 2026 results & picks →