TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Lazaro Garcia vs D. Semenistaja (Makarska on 2026-06-05) — the market is efficient, with A. Lazaro Garcia favoured at 1.65.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Lazaro Garcia | D. Semenistaja |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.2% | 46.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.4% | 36.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.1% | 50.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.2% | 44.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.8% | 44.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lazaro Garcia | clay | 1688 | 116–82 | 198 |
| D. Semenistaja | clay | 1653 | 148–83 | 231 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
D. Semenistaja leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 5, 2026 | Makarska | clay | D. Semenistaja | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 8, 2025 | Mallorca | clay | A. Lazaro Garcia | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 19, 2025 | US Open | hard | D. Semenistaja | 2 - 1 |
| W | C. Paquet | 1 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Pigossi | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | N. Podoroska | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Z. Kulambayeva | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Ristic | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | S. Kraus | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Riera | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 1 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | A. Ruzic | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
All June 5, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used