TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Holmgren vs D. Jade (French Open on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with A. Holmgren favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Holmgren | D. Jade |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.1% | 29.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
82.0% | 17.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.8% | 52.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.7% | 33.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
75.0% | 25.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Holmgren | hard | 1624 | 118–73 | 191 |
| D. Jade | clay | 1464 | 15–15 | 30 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
A. Holmgren leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Holmgren | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Shick | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Draxl | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | G. Johns | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Vukic | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. Boulais | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | S. Cuenin | 0 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | V. Durasovic | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | R. Alujas | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Aubriot | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | T. Boogaard | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used