TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Fery vs P. Martinez (French Open on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with P. Martinez favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Fery | P. Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.3% | 59.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
29.4% | 70.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
78.9% | 21.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.6% | 50.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.1% | 60.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fery | hard | 1722 | 118–49 | 167 |
| P. Martinez | clay | 1631 | 123–103 | 226 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
P. Martinez leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | French Open | clay | P. Martinez | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | G. Dimitrov | 2 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Virtanen | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | H. Dellien | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | H. Rocha | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | D. Jorda Sanchis | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used