TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. De Minaur vs T. Samuel (French Open on 2026-05-25) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.07.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. De Minaur | T. Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.0% | 32.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
81.1% | 18.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
31.6% | 68.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.2% | 39.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
89.4% | 10.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
| T. Samuel | hard | 1840 | 101–32 | 133 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. De Minaur | 3 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | J. D. Hara Friend | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Pinnington Jones | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | C. Broom | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | Y. H. Hsu | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
All May 25, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used