TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. De Minaur vs J. Mensik (French Open on 2026-05-29) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. De Minaur | J. Mensik |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.5% | 37.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
76.3% | 23.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
38.5% | 61.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.1% | 40.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
72.9% | 27.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
| J. Mensik | hard | 1898 | 117–56 | 173 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 5–1 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Mensik | 3 - 1 |
| Jan. 6, 2026 | ATP United Cup | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 29, 2025 | Beijing | hard | A. De Minaur | 0 - 0 |
| Sept. 21, 2025 | ATP Laver Cup | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 6, 2025 | Rotterdam | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Svajda | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Samuel | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 29, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used