TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Davidovich Fokina vs F. Marozsan (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with A. Davidovich Fokina favoured at 1.37.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Davidovich Fokina | F. Marozsan |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
73.5% | 26.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
60.9% | 39.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
64.5% | 35.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
73.5% | 26.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.4% | 28.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
| F. Marozsan | clay | 1759 | 115–59 | 174 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
A. Davidovich Fokina leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 0 |
| June 26, 2026 | Mallorca | grass | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 27, 2024 | ATP Dubai | hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
ADF Fokina vs Marozsan | Wimbledon R1 (1/32) | grass | 07-01 MODELS - ELO prob A: 0.735 | ML prob A: 0.609 | serve/return A: 0.645 | ensemble winner A: 0.663 (low conf) - Market: A 1.37 (impl 0.714) / B 3.42 (impl 0.286) | value_pick A, edge +2.1% - ELO ~ market (efficient on A). ML sits BELOW market (sees A overvalued); ML implies B 0.391 vs implied 0.286 = 10pt B disagreement. FORM (ADF, most-recent-first) - 06-29 W Cerundolo (1445 Weak) 6-4 6-4 7-6 GRIND - 06-27 W Quinn (1676 Strong) 7-6 6-3 -> MALLORCA TITLE - 06-26 W Marozsan (1592 Avg) 5-7 6-2 6-4 GRIND (H2H, ADF won) - 06-25 W Dimitrov (1788 Strong) 6-3 6-3 DOM - 06-24 W Walton (1370) 6-4 7-5 DOM Grass tear: Mallorca title + Wimbledon R1, 5+1 wins. FORM (Marozsan) - 06-29 W Tirante (1496 Weak) 7-5 6-3 6-4 DOM - 06-26 L vs ADF (H2H) - 06-25 W Kecmanovic (1601) 6-4 6-3 DOM | 06-23 W Tabilo (1493) DOM | 06-22 W Molcan (1803 Strong) 2-6 7-6 7-6 GRIND Reached Mallorca SF (lost to ADF), won Wimbledon R1. Solid grass form but lost the head-to-head. FATIGUE - ADF: 8 matches/14d, ~732 court-min, back-to-back 4, last 06-29 (2d rest) - Marozsan: 7 matches/14d, ~714 court-min, back-to-back 2, last 06-29 (2d rest) - court-time diff 18min, matches diff 1 -> Roughly equal. Both heavily loaded; ADF slightly more grind (b2b 4). NARRATIVE - Let-down: ADF won Mallorca Final 4d ago -> POSSIBLE window, but already backed it up with a Wimbledon R1 win 06-29. Not materializing. - TITLE: Mallorca 4d ago (grass) -> live grass form strong, outweighs surface ELO. - Venue: first Wimbledon match in window. VERDICT: PASS. ELO and market essentially agree -> A priced fairly (edge only 2%). ML disagrees but in the direction that A is OVERVALUED, i.e. it flags B value (39% vs 29%). The qualitative read does NOT validate backing Marozsan: he LOST the head-to-head on this exact surface 4 days ago, ADF is higher-rated, just won a title and the stronger grass operator. 3.42 on the man who just lost the meeting is not validated value. No mutually-agreed, qualitatively-confirmed edge -> no bet either way.