Our published closing-line value was measured against the raw closing price, with the bookmaker's roughly 6% margin still inside it. Measured against the vig-stripped Betfair exchange close, our bets have beaten the fair price only about 22-33% of the time, at an average CLV of roughly -1 to -2 percentage points. The market is currently beating us.
Update 2026-10-09: the public record at /bot is now the staked mechanical track. Its fair CLV is computed against the vig-stripped Pinnacle close where we have it and the exchange close otherwise. On the paper track recorded before staking began, it was still below zero.
We published a stat we liked: our picks beat the closing line about 72% of the time. A post on r/algobetting showed a model's CLV measured against the devigged closing consensus, negative, on the author's own front page. We applied the same test to ours, and it failed.
Closing-line value asks whether you got a better price than the market's final price. We used the raw closing odds, which carry the bookmaker's margin. On our sample the closing books summed to about 106% implied probability, so every quoted price is shortened from fair on both sides. Beating a shortened price can still mean taking worse than fair.
July 29, we backed Jessica Lu at 3.95. The book closed her at 3.75. Old method: a CLV win, +5%.
The closing pair was Lu 3.75, Hontama 1.25: 26.7% + 80.0% = 106.7%. Scaled to 100%, Lu's fair closing probability is 25.0%, fair odds of 4.00. We took 3.95, worse than fair, and the old method scored it as a win. About one in five of our "beat the close" bets was this case.
| Benchmark | Beat close | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|
| Raw close, vig included (old method) | ~40-56% | roughly flat |
| Devigged fair close | ~22-33% | -1 to -2 pp |
The ranges cover two samples: the full settled history (670 moneyline bets, mostly graded against devigged book closes) and the smaller recent subset where we recorded the actual exchange price we bet at. Both say the same thing: the market is beating us. Random prices would land near 50% against the fair close; we are below that.
This is the expected result against a sharp market. An analysis of eleven years of Pinnacle's ATP closing prices (2007–2018) found them calibrated well enough that no odds range returned a profit (the study). From July 30 every pick is graded against the devigged Betfair exchange close, captured both sides at match start.
We use the standard proportional devig: scale both sides' implied probabilities to sum to 100% (see EdgeSlip's explainer or SharkBetting on the three devig methods). It assumes the vig splits evenly between favourite and underdog, while real markets load more of it onto the underdog (OddsShopper; also our favorite-longshot study). Since we bet many underdogs, this makes our number slightly too harsh, maybe half a point. It does not turn it positive. Exchange closes exist only from July 30, so most of the history is graded against devigged book closes. These are hundreds of bets, not thousands: the direction is clear, the second decimal is not.
Method: settled moneyline bets from the live forward track, entry price vs the closing pair devigged by proportional normalisation (both sides' implied probabilities scaled to sum to 100%). Exchange closes (Betfair, both sides, captured at match start) preferred from 2026-07-30 onward; devigged book closes as the historical fallback; bets with no comparable close excluded, never estimated. Live record and per-bet fair CLV at /bot.
Not yet, on the honest metric. Against the devigged Betfair exchange close our closing-line value is currently negative (roughly 22-33% beat-close depending on the sample). We publish it anyway, and every pick from July 30 onward is graded against this same fair benchmark.
The bookmaker's margin removed from the closing odds, so your bet is compared to the true fair price instead of an inflated one. Convert both sides' closing odds to probabilities, they sum to more than 100%, and the excess is the vig. Scale both back to 100% and you have the fair line. Beating that line is the only version of CLV that predicts real profit.
It compared our price to the raw closing odds with roughly 6% of margin still in them. A shortened price is an easy bar: you can 'beat the close' while still taking worse than the fair price. Devigging removed the illusion, and about one bet in five flipped from beat to miss.
See today's picks: published before the match, graded in public →