TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Z. Svajda vs K. Majchrzak (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with K. Majchrzak favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Z. Svajda | K. Majchrzak |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.3% | 56.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
34.4% | 65.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
41.0% | 59.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.8% | 65.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Svajda | hard | 1741 | 147–102 | 249 |
| K. Majchrzak | hard | 1740 | 93–57 | 150 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
Z. Svajda leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | Z. Svajda | 3 - 2 |
| June 3, 2025 | Birmingham | grass | Z. Svajda | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 8, 2025 | Australian Open | hard | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Vukic | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Hewitt | 1 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | S. Kozlov | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 3 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | G. Monfils | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Paul | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Z. Svajda | 3 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
═══ Z. Svajda vs K. Majchrzak — Wimbledon 1/32 (grass) ═══
MODELS
ELO A 0.433 | ML A 0.531 | S/R A 0.344 | Blend A 0.410 (B 0.590)
Market: A 2.70 (34.8%) / B 1.44 (65.2%) — value_pick A, edge +6.2%
Bot: BET A 1.6u (0.25-Kelly on ML disagreement)
FORM (grass, last 90d)
Svajda (A): W Wimb R1 vs Llamas Ruiz 1544 DOM (6-1 6-2 6-4).
BUT lost 2 grass finals in straight sets — Mallorca F to Dzumhur 1640,
London F to Damm 1642. Grass wins only vs sub-1600 (Huesler, Broady).
No grass win over Strong/Elite. Also 3-set losses when tested.
Majchrzak (B): W Wimb R1 vs Tabilo 1460 (6-3 7-5 7-5).
WON Hertogenbosch TITLE 18d ago — beat De Minaur 1910 ELITE (F),
Medvedev 1858 ELITE (SF, 7-6 6-1), McCabe DOM. Elite grass scalps.
FATIGUE
Svajda: 3 matches/14d, ~241 court min, back-to-back flag — heavier load.
Majchrzak: 2 matches/14d, ~231 court min, no back-to-back — fresher.
Edge: slight to Majchrzak (fewer matches, no b2b).
NARRATIVE
Let-down: Majchrzak title 18d ago — outside window, NOT a let-down spot.
Venue: Hertogenbosch title carries grass momentum for B.
TITLE: Hertogenbosch 18d ago (grass) for Majchrzak.
VERDICT
The bot's +6.2% ML edge on Svajda is NOT validated by the read. Svajda's
grass resume is beating sub-1600 players and losing two finals in straight
sets; Majchrzak has beaten two Elite (De Minaur, Medvedev) plus a grass
title. Live grass form heavily favors B, contradicting the model edge on A.
Market (65% B) looks correct/efficient here — no edge to back A.
DECISION: PASS.