TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Y. Putintseva vs P. Badosa (Bastad on 2026-07-10) — the market is efficient, with P. Badosa favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Y. Putintseva | P. Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.3% | 48.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.1% | 47.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.3% | 53.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
37.5% | 62.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Putintseva | hard | 1750 | 113–90 | 203 |
| P. Badosa | hard | 1824 | 78–54 | 132 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
P. Badosa leads 4–2 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 10, 2026 | Bastad | clay | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 |
| March 4, 2026 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 16, 2024 | WTA Cincinnati | hard | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 |
| May 30, 2024 | WTA French Open | clay | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 10, 2022 | Toronto | hard | Y. Putintseva | 1 - 0 |
| L | S. Zhang | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Avanesyan | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Barthel | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Charaeva | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Kawa | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Zidansek | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
All July 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used