TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Y. Morderger vs L. Nguyen Tan (Contrexeville on 2026-07-05) — the market is efficient, with L. Nguyen Tan favoured at 1.04.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Y. Morderger | L. Nguyen Tan |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.2% | 80.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
7.3% | 92.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
19.2% | 80.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
10.4% | 89.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Morderger | clay | 1221 | 20–30 | 50 |
| L. Nguyen Tan | clay | 1468 | 79–74 | 153 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 5, 2026.
L. Nguyen Tan leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 5, 2026 | Contrexeville | clay | L. Nguyen Tan | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Nguyen Tan | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | N. Noha Akugue | 2 - 0 | Oct. 19, 2025 |
| L | L. Kung | 2 - 0 | Sept. 28, 2025 |
| L | E. Guerrero Alvarez | 2 - 0 | Sept. 14, 2025 |
| L | M. Hodzic | 0 - 2 | Aug. 22, 2025 |
| L | K. L. Ebeling | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. L. Ebeling | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | A. Herrero Linana | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Y. Morderger | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | Y. Kabbaj | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
All July 5, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used