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Y. Hanfmann vs S. Baez — Prediction & Analysis

Kitzbuhel · ATP Kitzbuhel - Quarter-finals · July 24, 2026 · 09:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Y. Hanfmann vs S. Baez (Kitzbuhel on 2026-07-24) — the market is efficient, with Y. Hanfmann favoured at 1.82.

Surface clay Odds Y. Hanfmann 1.82 · S. Baez 2.09

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: Y. Hanfmann · S. Baez · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ Y. Hanfmann vs S. Baez — Kitzbuhel (clay) QF ═══

MODELS
  ELO   A 0.533  (agrees w/ market)
  ML    A 0.405  (disagrees — favors Baez)
  Blend A 0.515  →  B 0.485
  Market: A 1.82 / B 2.09 book | Betfair A 1.83 / B 2.16 (impl A 0.535)
  value_pick B, edge +1.98%

RECENT FORM (last 5)
  Hanfmann: W Trungelliti(1750) GRIND 3s | W Neumayer(1698) GRIND | L Vacherot(1761) | W Martinez(1603) GRIND | L Khachanov
    → back-to-back tight 3-setters to reach QF; no DOM wins, all grind. Grass-leaning player scrapping on clay.
  Baez:     W Rinderknech(1720) GRIND 3s | W Kecmanovic(1769) GRIND 3s | L Rublev(1907) | W De Jong(1787) GRIND | W Dahlin(1296) GRIND
    → clay specialist, quality wins over Strong bracket, but every match a 3-set war.

FATIGUE
  Hanfmann 522 min / 4 matches 14d / 3 in 7d / 12 sets
  Baez     671 min / 5 matches 14d / 4 in 7d / 15 sets, b2b x2
  Diff 149 min > 60 → Baez the heavier-loaded side. Fatigue leans Hanfmann.

NARRATIVE
  Baez TITLE: Prostejov Final 45d ago (clay) — too stale to price.
  No let-down window. Venue neutral (both first Kitzbuhel deep run).

VERDICT — PASS
  ML model favors Baez but ELO+market agree on Hanfmann; qualitative is split
  (clay pedigree → Baez, fatigue → Hanfmann) and validates neither strongly.
  Pricing: B ML @2.16 edge only +1.0% (min_odds 2.16). A -1.5 @2.0 edge +2.0%.
  Under 23 @1.97 ~+2%. Every priced market sits under the 5% executable bar.
  No market–qualitative alignment strong enough to bet. PASS.

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