TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Xiy. Wang vs S. Bejlek (Toronto on 2026-08-03) — the market is efficient, with S. Bejlek favoured at 1.42.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Xiy. Wang | S. Bejlek |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.7% | 61.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.2% | 56.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
41.3% | 58.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
37.2% | 62.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
S. Bejlek leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 2, 2026 | Toronto | hard | S. Bejlek | 2 - 1 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Bassols | 1 - 1 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | H. Guo | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Tagger | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Tauson | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
All Aug. 3, 2026 results & picks →
Xiy. Wang (A, #175, age25) vs S. Bejlek (B, #37, age20) — WTA Toronto R1, hard.
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO A 38.7% | ML A 43.2% | model A 41.3% | Pinnacle no-vig A 42.8%
Betfair ML (executable): A 2.30 (43.5%), B 1.69 (59.2%). Book odds_b 1.42 is stale — using Betfair.
Models sit right on the exchange price both sides → efficient.
RECENT FORM (last 5)
Wang: L Memphis-quali vs McNally(1500) 3set w/ TB (07-28, hard); L Wimb SF vs Bassols; W Wimb QF vs Guo 7-6 6-3;
L Brescia-quali Final vs Sherif(1713); W Brescia SF vs Soboleva 6-2 6-2. Shape: FADING — 3-set quali LOSS to a 1500 on hard.
Bejlek: L Prague QF vs Tagger(1708) 6-3 6-4 (07-24, clay); W Prague vs Timofeeva(1786); W Prague vs Blinkova 3set;
L Athens QF vs Tauson(1792); W Athens vs Tagger. Shape: STABLE, decent wins over strong opp on clay.
PATH / SHAPE
Neither has played Toronto (both R1, first match at venue). Wang match-sharp on HARD (Memphis 5d ago) but off a quali loss.
Bejlek TRANSITION clay->hard + 9-day gap since last match — mild rust/looser margins; supports a Wang dog thesis only weakly.
ELO/RANKING SANITY
Wang ELO (38.7% vs a #37) runs ahead of her #175 rank — rating partly farmed at weak clay quali fields (Brescia/Modena).
Discount any A tilt. Bejlek ELO ~ rank, credible.
FATIGUE (Step 2)
Wang: 1 match/14d, last 07-28. Bejlek: 3 matches/14d, 281min, last 07-24 (9d ago). Neither extreme spot. No haircut. Context only.
ALT MARKETS
Handicap: not quoted. AH: not quoted.
Totals: line 21.0 over 1.81 / under 1.84. Model over-20.5 54.8% -> over-21.0 ~52% vs comm-adj implied 56.5%; under ~48% vs 55.6%. No edge either side.
EDGE TEST
Back A @2.30: comm-adj 2.235 (44.7%); min prob for 5% edge 49.7%; models 41-43% -> NO edge.
Back B @1.69: comm-adj 1.656 (60.4%); min 65.4%; models ~57-61% -> NO edge.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL — no numeric model-vs-market gap on any market; models cluster on the exchange price.
G2 consensus: PASS (stake-tier only, not applicable — no bet).
G3 fatal-risk: n/a — no margin bet.
VERDICT: PASS. Efficient match. Models agree with the exchange both sides; only qualitative wrinkles (Bejlek transition/rust,
Wang FADING + partly-farmed ELO) roughly cancel and are already priced. No articulable edge. Pass.