TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in W. Falkowska vs K. Novak (Ljubljana on 2026-09-15) — the market is efficient, with W. Falkowska favoured at 1.02.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | W. Falkowska | K. Novak |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
80.1% | 19.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
91.6% | 8.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.5% | 45.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
75.4% | 24.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
86.3% | 13.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Falkowska | clay | 1449 | 93–77 | 170 |
| K. Novak | clay | 1226 | 14–27 | 41 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 7, 2026.
| L | E. Yaneva | 1 - 2 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
| L | A. Zolotareva | 2 - 1 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| L | L. Zaar | 1 - 1 | Aug. 19, 2026 |
| L | C. Y. Lee | 2 - 1 | Aug. 6, 2026 |
| W | N. Noha Akugue | 2 - 1 | Aug. 5, 2026 |
| L | E. Alvisi | 2 - 0 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| L | A. J. Schaefer | 2 - 0 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| L | C. Gallardo Guevara | 1 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | N. Maines | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | L. Rodriguez | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
All Sept. 15, 2026 results & picks →