TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in V. Lepchenko vs T. Korpatsch (Bastad on 2026-07-08) — the market is efficient, with T. Korpatsch favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | V. Lepchenko | T. Korpatsch |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
30.1% | 69.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.8% | 64.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
30.1% | 69.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.5% | 64.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Lepchenko | hard | 1587 | 91–76 | 167 |
| T. Korpatsch | clay | 1772 | 122–71 | 193 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
V. Lepchenko leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 8, 2026 | Bastad | clay | V. Lepchenko | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Jones | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | C. Ngounoue | 1 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | E. Avanesyan | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | A. Petkovic | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Bondar | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Sherif | 0 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinina | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | J. Stusek | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
All July 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used