TENNISEDGE.GG

V. Gaubas vs P. Carreno-Busta — Prediction & Analysis

Estoril · ATP Estoril - 1/16-finals · July 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in V. Gaubas vs P. Carreno-Busta (Estoril on 2026-07-20) — the market is efficient, with P. Carreno-Busta favoured at 1.40.

Surface clay Odds V. Gaubas 3.00 · P. Carreno-Busta 1.40

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: V. Gaubas · P. Carreno-Busta · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ V. Gaubas vs P. Carreno-Busta — Estoril (clay), 1/16-finals ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  Book:  Gaubas 3.00 (33.3% w/vig) | Carreno-Busta 1.40 (71.4% w/vig)
  ELO:   Gaubas 24.8% | PCB 75.2%
  ML:    Gaubas 36.3% | PCB 63.7%
  Exchange: none (alt_markets null) — book-priced event, 8% edge bar applies
  Alignment: ELO leans PCB harder than market (+3.8% at book), ML leans softer
  (-7.7%). Models disagree with each other; no consensus edge either direction.

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all fetched matches classified)
  Gaubas (1-4 last 5):
    07-13 Bastad L De Jong (1779) 7.7-6.1 7-5 — GRIND loss vs Strong
    07-09 Braunschweig L Diaz Acosta (1811)
    07-07 Braunschweig W Basilashvili (1673) — GRIND (TB) vs Strong
    06-30 Wimbledon 1/64 L Jacquet (1717)
    06-25 Wimbledon Final W Lajovic (1558) 5 sets — GRIND vs Weak
  Carreno-Busta (2-2 last 4, quality wins beyond):
    07-15 Umag 1/8 L Ugo Carabelli (1809) 6-3 5-7 5-7 — GRIND loss vs Strong
    07-14 Umag 1/16 W Dodig (1640) straight sets — DOM vs Avg
    07-02 Wimbledon L Jodar (1666) 5 sets
    06-29 Wimbledon W Shapovalov (1583) — GRIND (TB)
    05-29/25 FO: W Tirante (1811), W Lehecka (1847) — real Strong-opponent wins on clay

FATIGUE
  Gaubas: 3 matches/14d, 404 court min, last played 07-13 (7d rest)
  PCB:    2 matches/14d, 285 min, 1 back-to-back, last played 07-15 (5d rest)
  Court-time diff ~119min on Gaubas but both fully rested now → no live fatigue edge.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: Gaubas first Final = Wimbledon (quali) Final Won 06-25, 25d ago → None.
  Venue: no Estoril history for either player in window.
  Read: PCB clearly the better clay player right now (beat Lehecka/Tirante/Baez in
  the window); Gaubas 1-4 in last 5 with two Challenger-level losses. Qualitative
  supports the favourite — but that is priced.

VERDICT — PASS
  PCB edge at book: 75.2% - 71.4% = +3.8% (the brief's 7.0% "value_edge" ignores
  vig). ML model actually shades PCB BELOW market. No Betfair exchange price →
  book-priced rule requires ≥8% edge; 3.8% split-model edge at 1.40 fails it.
  min odds for 75.2% = 1.40 — book price is exactly at the floor, zero margin.
  No case for Gaubas either (losing form, ELO 24.8%). Efficient line. Pass.

More from Estoril