TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Morderger vs Y. Kotliar (Contrexeville on 2026-07-05) — the market is efficient, with Y. Kotliar favoured at 1.06.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Morderger | Y. Kotliar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
10.6% | 89.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
12.6% | 87.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
10.6% | 89.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
11.7% | 88.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Morderger | clay | 1099 | 7–30 | 37 |
| Y. Kotliar | clay | 1511 | 71–48 | 119 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 5, 2026.
Y. Kotliar leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 5, 2026 | Contrexeville | clay | Y. Kotliar | 2 - 1 |
| L | Y. Kotliar | 1 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | S. Shapatava | 2 - 0 | Oct. 19, 2025 |
| L | T. Kostovic | 2 - 0 | Sept. 28, 2025 |
| L | O. Selekhmeteva | 0 - 2 | Sept. 24, 2025 |
| L | A. Tikhonova | 2 - 0 | Sept. 15, 2025 |
| L | M. Ristic | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Spiteri | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Prisacariu | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | A. Mazzola | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Hodzic | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
All July 5, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used